For many years, Syria was once Iran’s closest Arab best friend within the Center East whilst the rich Persian Gulf monarchies have been locked in a contest with Tehran for energy and affect around the area.
With the unexpected overthrow of the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, his shut best friend Iran has been sidelined. That gifts a possibility for Gulf states to fill the void and expand ties with the brand new executive in Damascus.
The 2 main Gulf powers, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are taking a wary way, as a result of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the main rebel faction that has seized keep an eye on of a lot of Syria, leans towards Islamism and was once as soon as affiliated with the extremist staff Al Qaeda.
The 2 Gulf international locations have spent the simpler a part of the previous twenty years looking to save you the upward push of teams that embody political Islam around the Center East, opposing the likes of Al Qaeda, the Islamic State and the Muslim Brotherhood.
The Gulf powers have stated publicly that the brand new leaders in Syria should exhibit that they’re going to be inclusive and tolerant of the rustic’s numerous array of sects ahead of they are able to win political and monetary reinforce.
Anwar Gargash, a diplomatic adviser to the Emirati president, stated lately that the character of the revolt factions and their previous association with Al Qaeda have been motive for worry.
“I feel those are all signs which are reasonably being worried,” Mr. Gargash stated all through a convention within the Emirati capital, Abu Dhabi, in mid-December in a while after the revolt takeover. “The area has observed episodes like this ahead of, so we want to be on guard.”
The Gulf international locations have lengthy feared that the empowerment of Islamist teams within the Center East may just destabilize their very own autocratic governments. When the Arab Spring erupted around the Center East in 2011, a number of autocracies have been toppled and robust Islamist teams rose to fill the vacuum in international locations, together with Tunisia and Egypt.
“The U.A.E. has a protracted historical past of being in particular adversarial to Islamist-affiliated political events and governments,” stated Anna Jacobs, a senior Gulf analyst for the World Disaster Team, a nonprofit. “However no less than up till now, the U.A.E. has despatched some very transparent indicators that it’s keen to paintings with the period in-between executive for the sake of retaining balance in Syria and within the wider area.”
Issues within the Gulf about Islamist energy hint again to the 9-11, 2001, assaults on New York. Many of the 19 hijackers have been Saudi and were influenced by way of the dominion’s strict model of Islam, Wahhabism, which has been blamed by way of some for fueling intolerance and terrorism. Saudi Arabia’s de facto chief, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has since curbed the power of religious clerics.
After the Arab Spring revolution in Egypt, electorate elected a president from the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood motion, Mohammed Morsi. However he was once ousted in a coup in 2013 that the United Arab Emirates supported.
And the wariness towards Islamists in Syria is felt no longer simplest within the Gulf, however in different regional powers, together with Egypt.
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the overall who changed Mr. Morsi in Egypt in 2013, has spent the years since then stamping out the Brotherhood in his nation, seeing the crowd as a danger to his energy.
In mid-December, Mr. el-Sisi made a unprecedented look ahead of newshounds that instructed anxiety over the occasions in Syria. He looked as if it would draw a distinction between himself and Mr. al-Assad.
“There are two issues I’ve by no means executed, by way of the grace of God: My palms have by no means been stained with any individual’s blood, and I’ve by no means taken the rest that wasn’t mine,” he stated.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been staunch fighters of the Assad regime after Syria’s civil conflict started in 2011 and for the last decade that adopted. Mr. al-Assad was a pariah within the area and past for his brutal repression of fighters, which incorporated the use of chemical weapons towards his personal folks.
Each Gulf international locations closed their embassies in Syria in early 2012 amid the Assad executive’s crackdown on fighters. Over time, as Mr. al-Assad regained keep an eye on over a lot of his nation with vital Russian and Iranian army reinforce, there gave the look to be a shift in Gulf attitudes.
The 2 Gulf powers have been pivotal gamers in bringing Mr. al-Assad back into the Arab fold after a decade of isolation. The thaw was once pushed on the time by way of a want for Arab harmony to counterbalance Iran’s rising affect in Syria and within the wider Center East.
After a devastating earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria in early 2023, the Saudi management made a humanitarian outreach to Mr. al-Assad. And in a milestone later that very same 12 months, the Syrian chief was once readmitted to the Arab League.
The engagement with Mr. al-Assad’s management was once a tacit acknowledgment that, in spite of Western-backed efforts to oust him, his political survival had turn out to be a fact that might now not be overlooked.
The shift in Gulf attitudes whilst Mr. al-Assad nonetheless managed Syria was once a part of a broader regional reordering because the Saudis and Emirates started to re-engage with Iran.
Underneath Syria’s new leaders, the commercial alternatives of post-conflict rebuilding, an hobby when Mr. al-Assad held sway, shall be a part of any review for the Gulf states.
With the country’s infrastructure in ruins, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates stand to take advantage of reconstruction efforts, equipped they are able to negotiate favorable phrases with the brand new executive in Damascus.
Securing a task in rebuilding Syria additionally provides in a different way to steer the rustic’s long term.
Qatar, particularly, turns out open to supporting the transitional executive in Syria.
Qatar maintained contacts with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and with different Islamist revolt factions in Syria all through the civil conflict. In 2015, Qatar brokered a prisoner exchange deal between the rebels and the Lebanese Military.
When Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain severed ties with Qatar in 2017, considered one of their demands for restoring relations was once that Qatar sever its reinforce for the Nusra Entrance, the precursor to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
At an Arab League summit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in 2023, Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, walked out of the assembly ahead of a speech by way of Mr. al-Assad, signaling his nation’s stance.
After the Assad ouster, Qatar despatched its overseas minister to Damascus in overdue December, the highest-level government official from the Gulf to fulfill with the transitional executive. It was once adopted previous this week by way of a discuss with from the executive of the Gulf Cooperation Council and Kuwait’s overseas minister.
Ahmed al-Shara, the revolt chief who headed the offensive that overthrew Mr. al-Assad, stated the Qataris would obtain precedence for his or her reinforce over the last decade, in all probability alluding to a task for the Gulf emirate in reconstruction initiatives.
The Qatari delegation was once accompanied by way of a technical group from Qatar Airlines to offer technical reinforce for the reopening of Damascus International Airport.
“Qatar has a unique precedence in Syria on account of its honorable stance towards the Syrian folks,” Mr. al-Shara advised journalists.
Rania Khaled and Vivian Yee contributed reporting from Cairo.
